Thursday, November 29, 2007

A Change in Character for the Market


Tuesday we sold off mid-day and finished strong that was a tell. I noted that the correction is over, but we won't go straight up but i do think we rally until year end. I will be buying the DXD until 46 level, (Ultrashort DOW, goes up when DOW goes down) as it gets weaker to have insurance in the portfolio for the downside. We had bleak economic news yesterday, Oil prices saw a biggest one-day drop in dollar terms, but comments from the Fed vice Chairman spurred the markets to a huge and impressive gain. The technicals of the market are improving, the supports have held very strongly (see chart) However the fundamentals are weak, subprime and housing weakness haven’t gotten better but remember the market in forward looking and is expecting rate cuts, Fed is back on the side of the equity markets, and the fund managers have to buy the stocks that have done the best so they can show their boards that they didn’t miss the boat on the good stories of the year. So buy the weakness will work when adding to positions at this time with a short leash, this is no time to roll the dice.




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2 comments:

Mike said...

Hi,

I came across your blog a few days ago and I love it. You obviously understand the market quite well.

I had a number of your stock picks on my radar before I saw your site. You have very good rationale for choosing them. You also provide a lot of great market info. (e.g. how to tell market bottom and top,etc.).

Keep up the great work!

Mike

prudentstockinvestor M.D. said...

Thanks very much Mike, very nice of you.

Best Investment wishes

Ross

About Me: Disclaimer

$BPCOMP

$BPCOMP
Extremely Oversold

Regarding Chart: BPCOMQ

This is the lowest close seen in years, usually a sharp and violent rally follows these moves enhanced by short covering, this is no time to short and start making a shopping list.

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials
Dow Graph: 11/20/07
The Dow looks like its fighting for its life here at the level. It's no surprise there was a vicious bounce off the trend line as shown in the chart. Unfortunately, the last time we had that five hundred point reversal day was caused by the Fed stepping in, there has to be a similar event that helps the market or there is more pain ahead. The Fed minutes said nothing the market really liked, we sold off hard and bounced back hard as we hit support. This was just a reflex rally we may have to get one more really painful selloff to get around 12500.