Friday, November 30, 2007

Stock Market Recap for 11/30/07

The futures got a nice boost Friday morning from a series of positive developments that included a drop in oil prices below $90 per barrel, a report that a bailout plan is in the works for subprime borrowers, and a tacit signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that interest rates will likely be cut again at the December 11 FOMC meeting. The Government it seems is likely to step in and support the dollar (just my thinking), so the Fed can cut fifty to bail out the Banks.
(See charts) Technically the market averages were up substantially over the previous three days with a gap higher start on the fourth day to resistance near 1490 S&P 500 (Oct low/early Nov breakdown point, Mid-Nov reaction high, 50% retrenchment of Oct-Nov decline), 2698/2701 Nasdaq Comp (same resistance as S&P 500) and 13346/13460 (early Nov low/breakdown point, 50% retrace) providing an opportunity to book at least some profit, we could get a couple of down days Monday and Tuesday before the buyers come in unless there is some more good news. Top performers on the day outside of Finance/Housing included Transports, Paper, Tobacco, Retail, Medical Supplies and Media. Weakness today came from Computer-Hardware, Mining, and Gold/Silver.
In a nutshell, we are up big on the week with housing and financials as the front-runners, which is fitting since this all started with them so they should bottom first. The market doesn’t bottom all at once, so if you look at the different sectors the Nasdaq was hanging in while the S&P and Dow were getting hammered, until it dropped a hundred points in a two day period. So I expect that to be a laggard.



2 comments:

Mike said...

Do you believe that we have pretty much seen the bottom, or are near market bottom, for this correction that has so far lasted about 3 weeks?

I went long on some stocks Friday so hoping that there is not too much more downside here.

thanks for your thoughts,
Mike

prudentstockinvestor M.D. said...

YES

But it all depends on the FED. They have to cut aggressively if they don't we are giong down. I also believe the bank of England has to cut rates on thursday they have been hit hard by sub-prime/credit crunch. This will let the US FED cut, so the dollar doesnt plummet against the EURO

See sundaytimes.uk

About Me: Disclaimer

$BPCOMP

$BPCOMP
Extremely Oversold

Regarding Chart: BPCOMQ

This is the lowest close seen in years, usually a sharp and violent rally follows these moves enhanced by short covering, this is no time to short and start making a shopping list.

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials
Dow Graph: 11/20/07
The Dow looks like its fighting for its life here at the level. It's no surprise there was a vicious bounce off the trend line as shown in the chart. Unfortunately, the last time we had that five hundred point reversal day was caused by the Fed stepping in, there has to be a similar event that helps the market or there is more pain ahead. The Fed minutes said nothing the market really liked, we sold off hard and bounced back hard as we hit support. This was just a reflex rally we may have to get one more really painful selloff to get around 12500.