Thursday, December 13, 2007

Profiting from Africa and The Middle East

The Middle Eastern markets are strong but it’s important to understand the Middle East is not just one market. It's 13 markets spread out over a huge space that takes many hours to fly over. And not all these places are driven by oil. Which is one of the misconceptions of the Middle East along with that its economy is highly dependent on oil and that if the price of oil drops the Middle East is doomed. For example oil only accounts for 3% of Dubai's GDP. It’s a fact that Dubai’s going to be completely oil dry in the next two decades.
Every market is different. In Morocco, the most important factor for economic growth is rain. In Egypt it's tourism. In Dubai, it's the nightlife.
And these economies are bigger than you might think. Taken as a whole, the Middle East is the eighth biggest economy in the world. On a per capita basis, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and others are richer than Russia, Brazil, and just about any other emerging market you can name.
There are incredible projects planned in the Middle East like the construction of the famous Palms and Globe (manmade islands shaped like a giant palm tree and a world map, respectively) and other surreal projects in Dubai. Dubai government to build a central utilities complex and cargo warehouse as part of Dubai International Airport expansion project.
The Middle East currently has more infrastructure projects planned than China and India combined. Saudi Arabia alone is planning 13 cities, not towns, but full cities the size of Dubai. And all of these projects are budgeted at $40 oil. Oil would need to fall more than 50% for these projects to be uneconomical."
You can't invest directly in most of these markets unless you're a citizen of the Gulf Cooperation Council. So most U.S. investors are out of luck. Also The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf likes to keep its contracts and projects in-house as much as possible. In Saudi Arabia, 90% of businesses are privately held, family-run businesses. In Abu Dhabi, most of the city's largest developments are in the hands of a single development company, owned entirely by the government and answering directly to the crown prince. Contracts going to international firms are usually one-time (or, at most, two-time) deals. That’s why despite the calls of people like Jim Cramer, you can’t just buy Foster Wheeler or Halliburton to take advantage of this trend.
One way to invest is by using ETF, Symbol (GAF) State Street SPDR, but its mostly related to South African companies. The best way to invest by using the T Rowe Price Africa/ Middle East Fund (TRAMX).

Africa & Middle East Fund

Objective: The fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing primarily in the common stocks of companies located or with primary operations in Africa and the Middle East.

Strategy: The fund expects to make substantially all of its investments (normally at least 80% of net assets) in African and the Middle Eastern companies. The fund may invest in common stocks in the countries listed below, as well as others as their markets develop:

Primary Emphasis: Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, South Africa, and United Arab Emirates.

Others: Algeria, Botswana, Ghana, Kuwait, Mauritius, Namibia, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe.

The fund is registered as "nondiversified," meaning it may invest a greater portion of assets in a single company and own more of the company`s voting securities than is permissible for a "diversified" fund. Depending on conditions, the fund`s portfolio should be composed of investments in about 30 to 40 different companies although the exact number could vary substantially depending on market conditions. The fund may make substantial investments (at times more than 25% of total assets) in the telephone or banking companies of various Middle Eastern and African countries. Stock selection reflects a growth style.
Estimated expenses:

Redemption fee 2.00% for shares held less than 90 days.

Management fee 1.06%

Other expenses 0.69%

Total annual fund operating expenses 1.75% (which makes it the highest expense ratio of any TRP International Fund).

Portfolio Management

Africa & Middle East Fund Christopher D. Alderson, Chairman, Ulle Adamson, S. Leigh Robertson, and Joseph Rohm. Mr. Alderson has been chairman of the committee since its inception. He joined T. Rowe Price International in 1988 and has been managing investments since 1986.

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$BPCOMP

$BPCOMP
Extremely Oversold

Regarding Chart: BPCOMQ

This is the lowest close seen in years, usually a sharp and violent rally follows these moves enhanced by short covering, this is no time to short and start making a shopping list.

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials

Bear-ly Hangin" In dustrials
Dow Graph: 11/20/07
The Dow looks like its fighting for its life here at the level. It's no surprise there was a vicious bounce off the trend line as shown in the chart. Unfortunately, the last time we had that five hundred point reversal day was caused by the Fed stepping in, there has to be a similar event that helps the market or there is more pain ahead. The Fed minutes said nothing the market really liked, we sold off hard and bounced back hard as we hit support. This was just a reflex rally we may have to get one more really painful selloff to get around 12500.